The bet:
As demand for wine continues to soar post-pandemic, especially among premium brands, so too will demand for grapes and wine-growing land.
This land could make for valuable real estate, especially as the Napa / Sonoma experience becomes more popular. To paint a picture, these regions have captured a perfect balance between modern and rural. Affluent San Francisco tech yuppies often flock from the city on the weekends to various wineries, which often compete on experience — selfies in the vines, farmhouse styles, mountain views, biodynamic settings, caves, post-modern furniture, the whole shebang. Do some research on B Wise wines and their cave experience to get an idea. The Wise family purchased a barren rock quarry in the Moon Mountain AVA (before it was an AVA I imagine) and absolutely transformed it into a stunning property.
American Viticultural Areas (AVAs) are designated wine-growing areas in the U.S., while there are endless official appellations internationally as well. These areas are distinctive based on a number of qualities such as climate, altitude, soil makeup, temperature, humidity, fog, sun exposure, drainage, wind, and a number of other weather-centric factors that I imagine are highly quantified in this age of big data.
The solution:
Gather intricate weather metrics, coupled with soil samples, of all the world’s best wine-growing regions and feed it into a Machine-Learning AI algorithm.
I imagine trends will emerge — what makes Rhone Rhone, or Carneros Carneros, or Rutherford Rutherford? What are the commonalities, weather-wise, of all the areas growing the world’s finest Chardonnay grapes? Noble reds? Alicante Bouchet?
The existing vineyards act as the “carrot” that tells the AI what to look for. What qualities of Moon Mountain in Sonoma, a wonderful area for Syrah, have commonality with the stunning Syrah in Sonoita, southern Arizona?
Eventually the algorithm should be able to pinpoint viable sites for various varietals, digesting massive amounts of weather data to predict with relative certainty where grapes should grow well, and perhaps even the orientation of the rows — the orientation, spacing, drainage slopes, etc.
Whomever is first to scoop up this cheap land will be at a great advantage. Hire a few folks like the legendary Phil Coturri to grow the vines, and be first-to-market in yet-to-be-classified appellations.
I strongly suspect there will be demand in the future for the Napa/Sonoma/SF formulate near virtually all cities. A two to three-hour drive from city epicenters to an explosion of wine countries. With these come farming, distilleries, fine dining, a host of wonderful establishments, and a sense of community.